{ "generated_at": "2026-11-09T06:20:04+00:00", "high_threshold": 70, "tests": { "dengue": { "A_states_years": { "n_states": 35, "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "median_rho": -0.1, "share_positive": 0.29, "pooled_r": -0.116, "pooled_n": 174, "permutation_p": 0.1625, "states": [ { "state": "Manipur", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.7, "cases": [ 203, 503, 2548, 2463, 5519 ], "pct": [ 46.7, 56.9, 59.4, 67.9, 65.5 ] }, { "state": "Telangana", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.5, "cases": [ 7135, 8972, 8016, 10077, 8412 ], "pct": [ 62.1, 53.9, 45.4, 68.0, 63.6 ] }, { "state": "Jammu And Kashmir", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.3, "cases": [ 1709, 8269, 6403, 6876, 3381 ], "pct": [ 28.9, 35.6, 34.6, 38.5, 38.9 ] }, { "state": "Maharashtra", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.3, "cases": [ 12720, 8578, 19034, 19385, 14168 ], "pct": [ 66.7, 57.5, 52.7, 71.6, 62.9 ] }, { "state": "Uttarakhand", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.3, "cases": [ 738, 2337, 4320, 494, 992 ], "pct": [ 36.7, 39.7, 36.0, 35.2, 43.8 ] }, { "state": "Gujarat", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.2, "cases": [ 10983, 6682, 7222, 7891, 4233 ], "pct": [ 62.4, 58.4, 65.9, 71.3, 62.8 ] }, { "state": "Odisha", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.2, "cases": [ 7548, 7063, 12845, 9892, 2635 ], "pct": [ 51.6, 50.1, 51.7, 65.1, 60.4 ] }, { "state": "Tripura", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.2, "cases": [ 349, 56, 1447, 1198, 741 ], "pct": [ 42.4, 52.6, 44.3, 62.0, 57.6 ] }, { "state": "Assam", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.1, "cases": [ 103, 1826, 8208, 2271, 679 ], "pct": [ 45.7, 48.3, 46.5, 50.6, 52.3 ] }, { "state": "Chhattisgarh", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.1, "cases": [ 1086, 2679, 2412, 3523, 513 ], "pct": [ 58.4, 53.6, 50.4, 69.9, 58.6 ] }, { "state": "Andaman And Nicobar Islands", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.1, "cases": [ 175, 1014, 846, 59, 370 ], "pct": [ 61.8, 56.9, 53.6, 54.0, 68.3 ] }, { "state": "Haryana", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.1, "cases": [ 11835, 8996, 8081, 6469, 2626 ], "pct": [ 58.5, 47.5, 58.5, 45.8, 66.8 ] }, { "state": "Jharkhand", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.1, "cases": [ 220, 290, 2578, 1528, 401 ], "pct": [ 53.6, 47.9, 46.0, 62.3, 61.0 ] }, { "state": "Nagaland", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.1, "cases": [ 24, 154, 4943, 42, 97 ], "pct": [ 59.6, 58.5, 62.1, 68.2, 68.3 ] }, { "state": "Punjab", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.1, "cases": [ 23389, 11030, 13687, 6260, 4981 ], "pct": [ 54.5, 44.1, 58.3, 41.9, 66.0 ] }, { "state": "Sikkim", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.1, "cases": [ 243, 264, 311, 374, 169 ], "pct": [ 27.0, 32.7, 28.3, 35.0, 36.7 ] }, { "state": "Uttar Pradesh", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.1, "cases": [ 29750, 19821, 35402, 15868, 9206 ], "pct": [ 54.6, 45.6, 58.6, 50.3, 61.2 ] }, { "state": "Delhi", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.2, "cases": [ 13089, 10183, 16866, 10585, 4665 ], "pct": [ 58.7, 47.5, 56.4, 46.2, 66.3 ] }, { "state": "Karnataka", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.2, "cases": [ 7393, 9889, 19300, 32886, 7325 ], "pct": [ 67.3, 53.3, 50.4, 66.1, 59.3 ] }, { "state": "Rajasthan", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.2, "cases": [ 20749, 13491, 13924, 12514, 4348 ], "pct": [ 59.8, 54.8, 66.3, 57.7, 67.1 ] }, { "state": "Andhra Pradesh", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.3, "cases": [ 4760, 6391, 6453, 5555, 2686 ], "pct": [ 64.2, 60.4, 45.4, 59.5, 59.2 ] }, { "state": "Himachal Pradesh", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.3, "cases": [ 349, 3326, 1989, 3359, 229 ], "pct": [ 34.2, 36.0, 35.9, 35.1, 41.8 ] }, { "state": "The Dadra And Nagar Haveli And Daman And Diu", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.3, "cases": [ 826, 913, 1462, 681, 344 ], "pct": [ 64.7, 65.5, 53.5, 67.2, 61.5 ] }, { "state": "Lakshadweep", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.4, "cases": [ 1, 67, 445, 513, 125 ], "pct": [ 72.4, 54.2, 51.2, 62.4, 51.9 ] }, { "state": "West Bengal", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024" ], "rho": -0.4, "cases": [ 8264, 67271, 30683, 441 ], "pct": [ 51.8, 52.8, 44.2, 56.3 ] }, { "state": "Chandigarh", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.5, "cases": [ 1596, 910, 454, 349, 66 ], "pct": [ 53.6, 38.6, 58.4, 41.4, 70.7 ] }, { "state": "Bihar", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.7, "cases": [ 633, 13972, 20224, 10157, 3902 ], "pct": [ 50.4, 48.4, 45.5, 53.8, 55.7 ] }, { "state": "Tamil Nadu", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.7, "cases": [ 6039, 6430, 9121, 27378, 23407 ], "pct": [ 73.1, 69.0, 63.8, 64.6, 58.7 ] }, { "state": "Meghalaya", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.9, "cases": [ 129, 26, 114, 74, 81 ], "pct": [ 53.5, 61.6, 55.0, 59.2, 59.3 ] }, { "state": "Arunachal Pradesh", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.0, "cases": [ 7, 114, 130, 20, 170 ], "pct": [ 44.0, 41.5, 41.4, 44.0, 48.7 ] }, { "state": "Goa", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.0, "cases": [ 649, 443, 512, 567, 105 ], "pct": [ 71.2, 59.8, 59.0, 59.0, 68.3 ] }, { "state": "Kerala", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.0, "cases": [ 3251, 4432, 17426, 20674, 10923 ], "pct": [ 66.4, 40.6, 55.5, 57.5, 41.2 ] }, { "state": "Madhya Pradesh", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.0, "cases": [ 15592, 3318, 6979, 10224, 1941 ], "pct": [ 58.9, 53.7, 59.1, 71.1, 62.5 ] }, { "state": "Mizoram", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.0, "cases": [ 83, 1868, 2060, 744, 1482 ], "pct": [ 44.7, 61.1, 59.3, 69.2, 62.8 ] }, { "state": "Puducherry", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.0, "cases": [ 1625, 1673, 2790, 2128, 902 ], "pct": [ 73.9, 71.7, 62.9, 65.1, 57.0 ] } ], "verdict": "Across 35 states and 174 state-years, years with more favourable weather had fewer reported cases (pooled r -0.116, permutation p 0.1625); not distinguishable from chance." }, "B_outbreaks": { "year": 2026, "n_outbreaks": 73, "n_scored": 72, "hits": 28, "hit_rate": 0.39, "base_rate": 0.28, "lift": 1.39, "mean_pct_before": 52.9, "mean_pct_all": 44.3, "weeks_covered": "2026-11-02", "outbreaks": [ { "id": "KL/PAL/2026/10/383", "district": "Palakkad", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-03-03", "cases": 48, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 57.1, 47.6, 57.1, 52.4 ], "max_before": 57.1, "hit": false }, { "id": "TN/TIR/2026/10/404", "district": "Tiruchirappalli", "state": "Tamil Nadu", "start": "2026-02-27", "cases": 12, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 100.0, 95.2, 71.4, 52.4 ], "max_before": 100.0, "hit": true }, { "id": "MH/AMR/2026/13/510", "district": "Amravati", "state": "Maharashtra", "start": "2026-03-27", "cases": 11, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 28.6, 23.8, 19.0, 19.0 ], "max_before": 28.6, "hit": false }, { "id": "TN/CUD/2026/13/515", "district": "Cuddalore", "state": "Tamil Nadu", "start": "2026-03-25", "cases": 8, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 42.9, 81.0, 85.7, 95.2 ], "max_before": 95.2, "hit": true }, { "id": "KL/KOZ/2026/14/546", "district": "Kozhikode", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-04-04", "cases": 47, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 81.0, 71.4, 61.9, 57.1 ], "max_before": 81.0, "hit": true }, { "id": "KL/PAL/2026/14/547", "district": "Palakkad", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-04-01", "cases": 37, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 71.4, 76.2, 76.2, 38.1 ], "max_before": 76.2, "hit": true }, { "id": "KL/PAL/2026/14/548", "district": "Palakkad", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-03-29", "cases": 17, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 76.2, 76.2, 38.1, 57.1 ], "max_before": 76.2, "hit": true }, { "id": "MH/RAI/2026/14/550", "district": "Raigad", "state": "Maharashtra", "start": "2026-03-31", "cases": 10, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 14.3, 38.1, 38.1, 57.1 ], "max_before": 57.1, "hit": false }, { "id": "KL/KOT/2026/15/595", "district": "Kottayam", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-04-10", "cases": 22, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 42.9, 57.1, 71.4, 71.4 ], "max_before": 71.4, "hit": true }, { "id": "KL/ERN/2026/17/669", "district": "Ernakulam", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-04-24", "cases": 12, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 19.0, 38.1, 66.7, 76.2 ], "max_before": 76.2, "hit": true }, { "id": "KL/THR/2026/17/672", "district": "Thrissur", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-04-17", "cases": 24, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 42.9, 61.9, 71.4, 76.2 ], "max_before": 76.2, "hit": true }, { "id": "KL/THR/2026/17/673", "district": "Thrissur", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-04-22", "cases": 48, "deaths": 1, "pct_before": [ 33.3, 42.9, 61.9, 71.4 ], "max_before": 71.4, "hit": true }, { "id": "KL/KOT/2026/19/737", "district": "Kottayam", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-05-09", "cases": 12, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 0.0, 0.0, 4.8, 4.8 ], "max_before": 4.8, "hit": false }, { "id": "KL/THR/2026/19/739", "district": "Thrissur", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-04-30", "cases": 18, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 19.0, 33.3, 42.9, 61.9 ], "max_before": 61.9, "hit": false }, { "id": "KL/THR/2026/19/740", "district": "Thrissur", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-04-30", "cases": 9, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 19.0, 33.3, 42.9, 61.9 ], "max_before": 61.9, "hit": false }, { "id": "KL/ERN/2026/20/782", "district": "Ernakulam", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-05-11", "cases": 21, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 0.0, 9.5, 14.3, 19.0 ], "max_before": 19.0, "hit": false }, { "id": "KL/IDU/2026/20/783", "district": "Idukki", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-05-15", "cases": 27, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 9.5, 19.0, 28.6, 38.1 ], "max_before": 38.1, "hit": false }, { "id": "KL/KOT/2026/20/787", "district": "Kottayam", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-05-15", "cases": 11, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.8 ], "max_before": 4.8, "hit": false }, { "id": "KL/KOT/2026/20/789", "district": "Kottayam", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-05-08", "cases": 16, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 0.0, 0.0, 4.8, 4.8 ], "max_before": 4.8, "hit": false }, { "id": "KL/KOZ/2026/20/790", "district": "Kozhikode", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-05-12", "cases": 22, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 19.0, 19.0, 42.9, 61.9 ], "max_before": 61.9, "hit": false }, { "id": "KL/KOZ/2026/21/838", "district": "Kozhikode", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-05-20", "cases": 24, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 14.3, 19.0, 19.0, 42.9 ], "max_before": 42.9, "hit": false }, { "id": "KL/PAL/2026/21/839", "district": "Palakkad", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-05-21", "cases": 85, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 4.8, 4.8, 28.6, 23.8 ], "max_before": 28.6, "hit": false }, { "id": "AN/SOU/2026/22/866", "district": "South Andamans", "state": "Andaman And Nicobar Islands", "start": "2026-05-23", "cases": 43, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 14.3, 38.1, 38.1, 52.4 ], "max_before": 52.4, "hit": false }, { "id": "KL/PAL/2026/22/876", "district": "Palakkad", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-05-30", "cases": 88, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 4.8, 4.8, 4.8, 28.6 ], "max_before": 28.6, "hit": false }, { "id": "KL/ERN/2026/23/910", "district": "Ernakulam", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-06-01", "cases": 20, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 4.8, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ], "max_before": 4.8, "hit": false }, { "id": "KL/ERN/2026/23/911", "district": "Ernakulam", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-06-01", "cases": 14, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 4.8, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ], "max_before": 4.8, "hit": false }, { "id": "KL/KOT/2026/23/912", "district": "Kottayam", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-06-06", "cases": 10, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 4.8, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ], "max_before": 4.8, "hit": false }, { "id": "KL/KOZ/2026/23/914", "district": "Kozhikode", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-06-04", "cases": 95, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 14.3, 9.5, 14.3, 19.0 ], "max_before": 19.0, "hit": false }, { "id": "KL/PAT/2026/23/915", "district": "Pathanamthitta", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-06-06", "cases": 22, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ], "max_before": 0.0, "hit": false }, { "id": "KL/PAT/2026/23/916", "district": "Pathanamthitta", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-06-06", "cases": 22, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ], "max_before": 0.0, "hit": false }, { "id": "KL/ERN/2026/24/948", "district": "Ernakulam", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-06-10", "cases": 18, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 4.8, 4.8, 0.0, 0.0 ], "max_before": 4.8, "hit": false }, { "id": "KL/KOT/2026/24/950", "district": "Kottayam", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-06-05", "cases": 20, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 4.8, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ], "max_before": 4.8, "hit": false }, { "id": "KL/PAL/2026/24/955", "district": "Palakkad", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-06-13", "cases": 10, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 4.8, 14.3, 4.8, 4.8 ], "max_before": 14.3, "hit": false }, { "id": "KL/THR/2026/24/957", "district": "Thrissur", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-06-12", "cases": 21, "deaths": 1, "pct_before": [ 4.8, 9.5, 4.8, 4.8 ], "max_before": 9.5, "hit": false }, { "id": "KL/ERN/2026/25/994", "district": "Ernakulam", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-06-15", "cases": 18, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 23.8, 4.8, 4.8, 0.0 ], "max_before": 23.8, "hit": false }, { "id": "KL/PAL/2026/25/997", "district": "Palakkad", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-06-15", "cases": 13, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 4.8, 4.8, 14.3, 4.8 ], "max_before": 14.3, "hit": false }, { "id": "KL/THR/2026/25/1000", "district": "Thrissur", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-06-05", "cases": 91, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 9.5, 4.8, 4.8, 4.8 ], "max_before": 9.5, "hit": false }, { "id": "KN/YAD/2026/25/992", "district": "Yadgir", "state": "Karnataka", "start": "2026-06-13", "cases": 74, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 23.8, 33.3, 52.4, 23.8 ], "max_before": 52.4, "hit": false }, { "id": "KL/THR/2026/26/1037", "district": "Thrissur", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-06-20", "cases": 11, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 19.0, 4.8, 9.5, 4.8 ], "max_before": 19.0, "hit": false }, { "id": "MH/PUN/2026/26/1040", "district": "Pune", "state": "Maharashtra", "start": "2026-06-25", "cases": 25, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 33.3, 42.9, 33.3, 28.6 ], "max_before": 42.9, "hit": false }, { "id": "KL/ERN/2026/27/1081", "district": "Ernakulam", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-07-05", "cases": 21, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 61.9, 76.2, 23.8, 4.8 ], "max_before": 76.2, "hit": true }, { "id": "KL/IDU/2026/27/1083", "district": "Idukki", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-06-29", "cases": 15, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 38.1, 33.3, 0.0, 0.0 ], "max_before": 38.1, "hit": false }, { "id": "KL/KAN/2026/27/1084", "district": "Kannur", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-07-03", "cases": 52, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 76.2, 100.0, 19.0, 4.8 ], "max_before": 100.0, "hit": true }, { "id": "KL/KAN/2026/27/1085", "district": "Kannur", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-07-01", "cases": 47, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 76.2, 100.0, 19.0, 4.8 ], "max_before": 100.0, "hit": true }, { "id": "KL/IDU/2026/28/1121", "district": "Idukki", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-07-03", "cases": 17, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 38.1, 33.3, 0.0, 0.0 ], "max_before": 38.1, "hit": false }, { "id": "KL/KOZ/2026/28/1122", "district": "Kozhikode", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-07-08", "cases": 44, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 52.4, 90.5, 100.0, 38.1 ], "max_before": 100.0, "hit": true }, { "id": "KN/DHA/2026/28/1120", "district": "Dharwad", "state": "Karnataka", "start": "2026-07-07", "cases": 35, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 9.5, 47.6, 47.6, 47.6 ], "max_before": 47.6, "hit": false }, { "id": "TN/TIR/2026/28/1135", "district": "Tiruchirappalli", "state": "Tamil Nadu", "start": "2026-07-08", "cases": 12, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 38.1, 23.8, 42.9, 38.1 ], "max_before": 42.9, "hit": false }, { "id": "KL/PAL/2026/29/1168", "district": "Palakkad", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-07-18", "cases": 29, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 100.0, 23.8, 71.4, 90.5 ], "max_before": 100.0, "hit": true }, { "id": "KL/THI/2026/29/1170", "district": "Thiruvananthapuram", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-07-18", "cases": 25, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 100.0, 85.7, 100.0, 95.2 ], "max_before": 100.0, "hit": true }, { "id": "OD/GAJ/2026/29/1181", "district": "Gajapati", "state": "Odisha", "start": "2026-07-12", "cases": 32, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 23.8, 19.0, 4.8, 9.5 ], "max_before": 23.8, "hit": false }, { "id": "KA/BAL/2026/30/1211", "district": "Ballari", "state": "Karnataka", "start": "2026-07-14", "cases": 22, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 38.1, 47.6, 38.1, 9.5 ], "max_before": 47.6, "hit": false }, { "id": "KL/MAL/2026/30/1219", "district": "Malappuram", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-07-18", "cases": 25, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 95.2, 42.9, 81.0, 100.0 ], "max_before": 100.0, "hit": true }, { "id": "MH/PAL/2026/30/1226", "district": "Palghar", "state": "Maharashtra", "start": "2026-07-12", "cases": 30, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 4.8, 23.8, 23.8, 47.6 ], "max_before": 47.6, "hit": false }, { "id": "TN/TEN/2026/30/1235", "district": "Tenkasi", "state": "Tamil Nadu", "start": "2026-07-16", "cases": 12, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 66.7, 81.0, 81.0, 71.4 ], "max_before": 81.0, "hit": true }, { "id": "KL/ERA/2026/32/1313", "district": "Ernakulam", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-08-05", "cases": 33, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 71.4, 81.0, 100.0, 100.0 ], "max_before": 100.0, "hit": true }, { "id": "KL/ERA/2026/32/1314", "district": "Ernakulam", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-08-03", "cases": 22, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 71.4, 81.0, 100.0, 100.0 ], "max_before": 100.0, "hit": true }, { "id": "KL/KOL/2026/32/1316", "district": "Kollam", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-08-06", "cases": 54, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 76.2, 81.0, 100.0, 100.0 ], "max_before": 100.0, "hit": true }, { "id": "KL/KOZ/2026/32/1317", "district": "Kozhikode", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-08-01", "cases": 38, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 71.4, 90.5, 100.0, 52.4 ], "max_before": 100.0, "hit": true }, { "id": "MH/NAN/2026/32/1326", "district": "Nanded", "state": "Maharashtra", "start": "2026-08-03", "cases": 20, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 57.1, 28.6, 33.3, 14.3 ], "max_before": 57.1, "hit": false }, { "id": "MP/MOR/2026/32/1318", "district": "Morena", "state": "Madhya Pradesh", "start": "2026-08-04", "cases": 13, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 14.3, 14.3, 4.8, 23.8 ], "max_before": 23.8, "hit": false }, { "id": "AS/BON/2026/33/1343", "district": "Bongaigaon", "state": "Assam", "start": "2026-08-16", "cases": 24, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 28.6, 33.3, 42.9, 95.2 ], "max_before": 95.2, "hit": true }, { "id": "JK/UDH/2026/33/1348", "district": "Udhampur", "state": "Jammu And Kashmir", "start": "2026-08-10", "cases": 94, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 57.1, 47.6, 0.0, 61.9 ], "max_before": 61.9, "hit": false }, { "id": "KL/MAL/2026/33/1351", "district": "Malappuram", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-08-14", "cases": 32, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 47.6, 71.4, 61.9, 95.2 ], "max_before": 95.2, "hit": true }, { "id": "KL/PAL/2026/33/1353", "district": "Palakkad", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-08-12", "cases": 54, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 47.6, 57.1, 66.7, 100.0 ], "max_before": 100.0, "hit": true }, { "id": "AS/NAG/2026/34/1373", "district": "Nagaon", "state": "Assam", "start": "2026-08-20", "cases": 22, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 0.0, 76.2, 57.1, 23.8 ], "max_before": 76.2, "hit": true }, { "id": "JK/SAM/2026/34/1383", "district": "Samba", "state": "Jammu And Kashmir", "start": "2026-08-18", "cases": 10, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 9.5, 14.3, 4.8, 4.8 ], "max_before": 14.3, "hit": false }, { "id": "KL/ERA/2026/34/138", "district": "Ernakulam", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-08-19", "cases": 20, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 57.1, 38.1, 71.4, 81.0 ], "max_before": 81.0, "hit": true }, { "id": "KL/MAL/2026/34/139", "district": "Malappuram", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-08-14", "cases": 12, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 47.6, 71.4, 61.9, 95.2 ], "max_before": 95.2, "hit": true }, { "id": "MH/JAL/2026/35/1430", "district": "Jalgaon", "state": "Maharashtra", "start": "2026-08-22", "cases": 17, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 52.4, 71.4, 57.1, 28.6 ], "max_before": 71.4, "hit": true }, { "id": "MP/DAT/2026/35/1428", "district": "Datia", "state": "Madhya Pradesh", "start": "2026-08-25", "cases": 15, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 52.4, 38.1, 42.9, 19.0 ], "max_before": 52.4, "hit": false }, { "id": "TN/KAL/2026/35/1440", "district": "Kallakurichi", "state": "Tamil Nadu", "start": "2026-08-28", "cases": 56, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 19.0, 9.5, 28.6, 38.1 ], "max_before": 38.1, "hit": false } ], "verdict": "Of 72 dengue outbreaks IDSP investigated in 2026, Machhar had read the district as higher than usual in the four weeks before 28 of them (39%); any district-week was that high 28% of the time. Lift 1.39. Better than chance on a small count." } }, "malaria": { "A_states_years": { "n_states": 35, "years": [ "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "median_rho": -0.2, "share_positive": 0.46, "pooled_r": 0.04, "pooled_n": 140, "permutation_p": 0.682, "states": [ { "state": "Jammu And Kashmir", "years": [ "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.8, "cases": [ 35, 44, 108, 127 ], "pct": [ 32.4, 40.2, 36.2, 40.7 ] }, { "state": "Maharashtra", "years": [ "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.8, "cases": [ 15451, 16159, 21078, 23821 ], "pct": [ 64.3, 59.6, 66.0, 69.3 ] }, { "state": "Sikkim", "years": [ "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.8, "cases": [ 8, 6, 7, 14 ], "pct": [ 43.9, 33.8, 34.6, 38.4 ] }, { "state": "Uttar Pradesh", "years": [ "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.8, "cases": [ 7039, 13603, 13477, 14593 ], "pct": [ 49.0, 61.6, 50.4, 59.6 ] }, { "state": "Chandigarh", "years": [ "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.77, "cases": [ 2, 2, 2, 65 ], "pct": [ 38.1, 64.3, 28.8, 70.5 ] }, { "state": "Jharkhand", "years": [ "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.6, "cases": [ 19167, 34087, 42352, 42236 ], "pct": [ 42.7, 39.9, 59.7, 72.2 ] }, { "state": "Manipur", "years": [ "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.6, "cases": [ 30, 34, 43, 78 ], "pct": [ 44.6, 39.2, 71.4, 63.7 ] }, { "state": "Nagaland", "years": [ "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.6, "cases": [ 9, 10, 12, 210 ], "pct": [ 49.3, 42.0, 72.2, 65.1 ] }, { "state": "Odisha", "years": [ "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.6, "cases": [ 23770, 41973, 68693, 62137 ], "pct": [ 48.4, 41.9, 55.6, 67.5 ] }, { "state": "Assam", "years": [ "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.4, "cases": [ 280, 567, 5036, 3995 ], "pct": [ 43.7, 44.8, 56.5, 42.1 ] }, { "state": "Bihar", "years": [ "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.4, "cases": [ 578, 1257, 906, 1041 ], "pct": [ 45.5, 47.9, 49.4, 56.9 ] }, { "state": "Delhi", "years": [ "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.4, "cases": [ 263, 344, 910, 941 ], "pct": [ 52.2, 60.3, 48.3, 73.6 ] }, { "state": "Arunachal Pradesh", "years": [ "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.2, "cases": [ 18, 11, 19, 32 ], "pct": [ 45.1, 42.2, 45.0, 44.8 ] }, { "state": "Karnataka", "years": [ "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.2, "cases": [ 289, 275, 740, 694 ], "pct": [ 73.2, 39.6, 61.1, 72.9 ] }, { "state": "Punjab", "years": [ "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.2, "cases": [ 119, 75, 379, 420 ], "pct": [ 52.3, 57.2, 35.8, 70.3 ] }, { "state": "Himachal Pradesh", "years": [ "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.11, "cases": [ 12, 23, 28, 28 ], "pct": [ 34.7, 41.7, 31.9, 47.5 ] }, { "state": "Haryana", "years": [ "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.2, "cases": [ 52, 85, 522, 515 ], "pct": [ 52.4, 60.9, 44.0, 72.2 ] }, { "state": "Kerala", "years": [ "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.2, "cases": [ 439, 569, 954, 1144 ], "pct": [ 71.2, 32.9, 59.6, 59.8 ] }, { "state": "Tamil Nadu", "years": [ "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.2, "cases": [ 354, 385, 347, 324 ], "pct": [ 76.8, 58.1, 65.8, 60.9 ] }, { "state": "Ladakh", "years": [ "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.21, "cases": [ 2, 10, 9, 10 ], "pct": [ 2.9, 1.9, 6.5, 4.6 ] }, { "state": "Andaman And Nicobar Islands", "years": [ "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.4, "cases": [ 50, 42, 96, 48 ], "pct": [ 69.5, 42.7, 36.3, 69.7 ] }, { "state": "Andhra Pradesh", "years": [ "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.4, "cases": [ 2022, 5268, 7866, 7878 ], "pct": [ 64.5, 45.3, 62.4, 58.4 ] }, { "state": "Chhattisgarh", "years": [ "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.4, "cases": [ 30029, 31706, 31373, 28836 ], "pct": [ 54.4, 46.6, 70.0, 66.1 ] }, { "state": "Meghalaya", "years": [ "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.4, "cases": [ 479, 1755, 673, 418 ], "pct": [ 50.8, 45.0, 67.9, 52.6 ] }, { "state": "Mizoram", "years": [ "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.4, "cases": [ 11156, 18077, 16899, 9330 ], "pct": [ 43.7, 42.0, 71.5, 54.9 ] }, { "state": "The Dadra And Nagar Haveli And Daman And Diu", "years": [ "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.4, "cases": [ 111, 128, 207, 212 ], "pct": [ 79.3, 61.6, 55.3, 69.2 ] }, { "state": "Uttarakhand", "years": [ "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.4, "cases": [ 19, 24, 241, 196 ], "pct": [ 40.8, 38.3, 35.6, 49.7 ] }, { "state": "Tripura", "years": [ "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.6, "cases": [ 12771, 22412, 9738, 6094 ], "pct": [ 37.4, 38.1, 72.4, 53.1 ] }, { "state": "Goa", "years": [ "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.8, "cases": [ 587, 1346, 884, 448 ], "pct": [ 58.3, 30.9, 64.2, 68.0 ] }, { "state": "Gujarat", "years": [ "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.8, "cases": [ 4785, 4311, 4365, 3813 ], "pct": [ 58.6, 61.4, 66.1, 69.7 ] }, { "state": "Puducherry", "years": [ "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.8, "cases": [ 0, 6, 4, 17 ], "pct": [ 74.2, 56.5, 66.6, 58.7 ] }, { "state": "Telangana", "years": [ "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.8, "cases": [ 611, 420, 269, 259 ], "pct": [ 62.3, 55.6, 62.6, 67.2 ] }, { "state": "West Bengal", "years": [ "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.8, "cases": [ 40594, 26493, 21802, 19840 ], "pct": [ 47.3, 45.0, 56.0, 64.0 ] }, { "state": "Madhya Pradesh", "years": [ "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -1.0, "cases": [ 3826, 3794, 3247, 2347 ], "pct": [ 58.3, 64.7, 68.7, 72.0 ] }, { "state": "Rajasthan", "years": [ "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.0, "cases": [ 1565, 2263, 2213, 1756 ], "pct": [ 59.1, 65.3, 58.7, 74.2 ] } ], "verdict": "Across 35 states and 140 state-years, years with more favourable weather had more reported cases (pooled r 0.04, permutation p 0.682); not distinguishable from chance." }, "B_outbreaks": { "year": 2026, "n_outbreaks": 21, "n_scored": 20, "hits": 9, "hit_rate": 0.45, "base_rate": 0.3, "lift": 1.5, "mean_pct_before": 60.5, "mean_pct_all": 46.4, "weeks_covered": "2026-11-02", "outbreaks": [ { "id": "JH/WES/2026/6/176", "district": "West Singhbhum", "state": "Jharkhand", "start": "2026-01-31", "cases": 97, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 76.2, 42.9, 23.8 ], "max_before": 76.2, "hit": true }, { "id": "MP/DIN/2026/10/385", "district": "Dindori", "state": "Madhya Pradesh", "start": "2026-03-04", "cases": 17, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 52.4, 71.4, 81.0, 90.5 ], "max_before": 90.5, "hit": true }, { "id": "MP/DIN/2026/10/386", "district": "Dindori", "state": "Madhya Pradesh", "start": "2026-03-04", "cases": 32, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 52.4, 71.4, 81.0, 90.5 ], "max_before": 90.5, "hit": true }, { "id": "MP/DIN/2026/14/549", "district": "Dindori", "state": "Madhya Pradesh", "start": "2026-03-31", "cases": 15, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 4.8, 14.3, 4.8, 23.8 ], "max_before": 23.8, "hit": false }, { "id": "JH/SAH/2026/16/630", "district": "Sahebganj", "state": "Jharkhand", "start": "2026-04-16", "cases": 21, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 61.9, 38.1, 33.3, 42.9 ], "max_before": 61.9, "hit": false }, { "id": "AS/TAM/2026/20/769", "district": "Tamulpur", "state": "Assam", "start": "2026-05-08", "cases": 300, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 90.5, 100.0, 90.5, 4.8 ], "max_before": 100.0, "hit": true }, { "id": "JH/EAS/2026/20/779", "district": "East Singhbum", "state": "Jharkhand", "start": "2026-05-14", "cases": 48, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 100.0, 71.4, 57.1, 61.9 ], "max_before": 100.0, "hit": true }, { "id": "CT/KAB/2026/26/1019", "district": "Kabeerdham", "state": "Chhattisgarh", "start": "2026-06-26", "cases": 8, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 4.8, 19.0, 38.1, 23.8 ], "max_before": 38.1, "hit": false }, { "id": "JH/EAS/2026/26/1024", "district": "East Singhbum", "state": "Jharkhand", "start": "2026-06-25", "cases": 30, "deaths": 1, "pct_before": [ 38.1, 76.2, 71.4, 81.0 ], "max_before": 81.0, "hit": true }, { "id": "OR/GAN/2026/26/1047", "district": "Ganjam", "state": "Odisha", "start": "2026-06-22", "cases": 27, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 4.8, 9.5, 14.3, 33.3 ], "max_before": 33.3, "hit": false }, { "id": "JH/RAN/2026/27/1074", "district": "Ranchi", "state": "Jharkhand", "start": "2026-07-02", "cases": 71, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 57.1, 57.1, 66.7, 71.4 ], "max_before": 71.4, "hit": true }, { "id": "MP/SHE/2026/27/1091", "district": "Sheopur", "state": "Madhya Pradesh", "start": "2026-07-01", "cases": 18, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 52.4, 76.2, 81.0, 95.2 ], "max_before": 95.2, "hit": true }, { "id": "JH/LOH/2026/29/1161", "district": "Lohardaga", "state": "Jharkhand", "start": "2026-07-14", "cases": 11, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 61.9, 76.2, 61.9, 66.7 ], "max_before": 76.2, "hit": true }, { "id": "MH/RAI/2026/29/1178", "district": "Raigad", "state": "Maharashtra", "start": "2026-07-18", "cases": 65, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 14.3, 14.3, 23.8, 19.0 ], "max_before": 23.8, "hit": false }, { "id": "OD/RAY/2026/29/1183", "district": "Rayagada", "state": "Odisha", "start": "2026-07-12", "cases": 27, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 14.3, 14.3, 9.5, 14.3 ], "max_before": 14.3, "hit": false }, { "id": "JH/SIM/2026/30/1207", "district": "Simdega", "state": "Jharkhand", "start": "2026-07-13", "cases": 45, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 23.8, 28.6, 38.1, 52.4 ], "max_before": 52.4, "hit": false }, { "id": "JH/SIM/2026/30/1208", "district": "Simdega", "state": "Jharkhand", "start": "2026-07-17", "cases": 12, "deaths": 1, "pct_before": [ 23.8, 28.6, 38.1, 52.4 ], "max_before": 52.4, "hit": false }, { "id": "UP/SON/2026/30/1238", "district": "Sonbhadra", "state": "Uttar Pradesh", "start": "2026-07-12", "cases": 16, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 23.8, 28.6, 28.6, 66.7 ], "max_before": 66.7, "hit": false }, { "id": "CG/SUR/2026/33/1347", "district": "Surguja", "state": "Chhattisgarh", "start": "2026-08-08", "cases": 45, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 0.0, 4.8, 14.3, 42.9 ], "max_before": 42.9, "hit": false }, { "id": "MP/GUN/2026/36/1463", "district": "Guna", "state": "Madhya Pradesh", "start": "2026-08-31", "cases": 19, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 4.8, 4.8, 4.8, 19.0 ], "max_before": 19.0, "hit": false } ], "verdict": "Of 20 malaria outbreaks IDSP investigated in 2026, Machhar had read the district as higher than usual in the four weeks before 9 of them (45%); any district-week was that high 30% of the time. Lift 1.5. Better than chance on a small count." } }, "chikungunya": { "A_states_years": { "n_states": 30, "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "median_rho": 0.15, "share_positive": 0.63, "pooled_r": 0.164, "pooled_n": 147, "permutation_p": 0.07, "states": [ { "state": "Maharashtra", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.9, "cases": [ 2526, 1087, 1702, 5854, 3444 ], "pct": [ 64.8, 58.4, 48.1, 67.9, 66.2 ] }, { "state": "Puducherry", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.9, "cases": [ 264, 239, 108, 262, 51 ], "pct": [ 73.4, 70.3, 60.2, 61.2, 56.5 ] }, { "state": "Odisha", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.89, "cases": [ 0, 0, 0, 18, 87 ], "pct": [ 48.1, 48.1, 45.4, 60.4, 63.0 ] }, { "state": "Chhattisgarh", "years": [ "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.8, "cases": [ 1, 5, 122, 52 ], "pct": [ 54.3, 45.1, 64.5, 62.0 ] }, { "state": "Himachal Pradesh", "years": [ "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.8, "cases": [ 6, 19, 13, 26 ], "pct": [ 34.6, 37.3, 33.8, 44.4 ] }, { "state": "Telangana", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.8, "cases": [ 76, 107, 51, 452, 283 ], "pct": [ 58.2, 54.2, 43.5, 64.0, 66.7 ] }, { "state": "West Bengal", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024" ], "rho": 0.8, "cases": [ 154, 1533, 762, 1734 ], "pct": [ 52.0, 55.1, 39.9, 55.6 ] }, { "state": "Bihar", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.7, "cases": [ 40, 67, 23, 520, 44 ], "pct": [ 51.0, 51.3, 42.9, 52.9, 57.5 ] }, { "state": "Madhya Pradesh", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.6, "cases": [ 397, 399, 315, 1321, 337 ], "pct": [ 60.8, 57.0, 55.7, 70.3, 65.8 ] }, { "state": "Tripura", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.6, "cases": [ 20, 17, 188, 360, 294 ], "pct": [ 40.0, 47.9, 38.6, 61.0, 53.6 ] }, { "state": "Jammu And Kashmir", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.5, "cases": [ 7, 5, 892, 326, 47 ], "pct": [ 30.0, 35.1, 36.6, 37.1, 39.4 ] }, { "state": "Andhra Pradesh", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.3, "cases": [ 48, 26, 17, 266, 146 ], "pct": [ 62.7, 58.7, 43.3, 55.5, 59.7 ] }, { "state": "Karnataka", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.3, "cases": [ 2188, 2312, 1910, 2954, 1096 ], "pct": [ 67.0, 56.1, 43.4, 62.9, 62.8 ] }, { "state": "Goa", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.2, "cases": [ 12, 106, 8, 10, 2 ], "pct": [ 69.3, 58.9, 50.1, 54.8, 68.3 ] }, { "state": "Punjab", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.2, "cases": [ 144, 469, 2072, 224, 589 ], "pct": [ 58.2, 45.8, 57.8, 37.2, 68.1 ] }, { "state": "Chandigarh", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.1, "cases": [ 7, 155, 8, 1, 5 ], "pct": [ 56.6, 39.1, 60.5, 35.6, 73.7 ] }, { "state": "Kerala", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.1, "cases": [ 334, 81, 31, 29, 50 ], "pct": [ 67.7, 43.1, 46.0, 52.5, 42.9 ] }, { "state": "Mizoram", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.1, "cases": [ 0, 53, 44, 3, 30 ], "pct": [ 36.2, 53.9, 49.1, 64.8, 60.3 ] }, { "state": "Uttarakhand", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": 0.1, "cases": [ 1, 593, 17, 552, 71 ], "pct": [ 37.5, 40.2, 37.3, 35.2, 49.5 ] }, { "state": "Delhi", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.1, "cases": [ 112, 61, 153, 344, 341 ], "pct": [ 64.3, 51.4, 56.5, 44.1, 67.5 ] }, { "state": "Haryana", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.1, "cases": [ 21, 242, 612, 55, 71 ], "pct": [ 62.3, 48.9, 59.3, 43.1, 67.8 ] }, { "state": "Uttar Pradesh", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.1, "cases": [ 70, 200, 1401, 1077, 669 ], "pct": [ 58.1, 49.2, 57.2, 49.4, 63.3 ] }, { "state": "Andaman And Nicobar Islands", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.22, "cases": [ 0, 0, 32, 0, 5 ], "pct": [ 60.1, 55.1, 45.5, 46.3, 65.9 ] }, { "state": "Rajasthan", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.3, "cases": [ 1157, 212, 305, 1268, 376 ], "pct": [ 62.0, 56.9, 65.6, 56.2, 67.7 ] }, { "state": "Assam", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.36, "cases": [ 2, 0, 16, 16, 85 ], "pct": [ 40.0, 49.8, 39.4, 48.4, 46.9 ] }, { "state": "Meghalaya", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.36, "cases": [ 0, 0, 16, 19, 9 ], "pct": [ 47.8, 61.5, 45.5, 52.6, 54.2 ] }, { "state": "Jharkhand", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.4, "cases": [ 215, 249, 762, 320, 138 ], "pct": [ 53.3, 49.6, 43.4, 62.9, 62.6 ] }, { "state": "Gujarat", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.5, "cases": [ 4044, 1046, 513, 702, 245 ], "pct": [ 62.0, 58.4, 64.3, 70.8, 63.5 ] }, { "state": "Sikkim", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.7, "cases": [ 32, 4, 2, 1, 0 ], "pct": [ 28.1, 34.6, 30.3, 33.9, 36.9 ] }, { "state": "Tamil Nadu", "years": [ "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025" ], "rho": -0.9, "cases": [ 153, 181, 222, 674, 580 ], "pct": [ 73.2, 68.1, 61.3, 61.1, 58.4 ] } ], "verdict": "Across 30 states and 147 state-years, years with more favourable weather had more reported cases (pooled r 0.164, permutation p 0.07); not distinguishable from chance." }, "B_outbreaks": { "year": 2026, "n_outbreaks": 5, "n_scored": 5, "hits": 4, "hit_rate": 0.8, "base_rate": 0.27, "lift": 2.93, "mean_pct_before": 75.3, "mean_pct_all": 43.0, "weeks_covered": "2026-11-02", "outbreaks": [ { "id": "KL/ERN/2026/15/593", "district": "Ernakulam", "state": "Kerala", "start": "2026-04-06", "cases": 60, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 66.7, 71.4, 76.2, 81.0 ], "max_before": 81.0, "hit": true }, { "id": "MH/DHU/2026/17/676", "district": "Dhule", "state": "Maharashtra", "start": "2026-04-22", "cases": 9, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 81.0, 57.1, 38.1, 19.0 ], "max_before": 81.0, "hit": true }, { "id": "MP/EAS/2026/20/796", "district": "Khandwa (East Nimar)", "state": "Madhya Pradesh", "start": "2026-05-13", "cases": 49, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 81.0, 81.0, 71.4, 71.4 ], "max_before": 81.0, "hit": true }, { "id": "MP/EAS/2026/21/840", "district": "Khandwa (East Nimar)", "state": "Madhya Pradesh", "start": "2026-05-20", "cases": 18, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 33.3, 81.0, 81.0, 71.4 ], "max_before": 81.0, "hit": true }, { "id": "KN/DAV/2026/28/1119", "district": "Davanagere", "state": "Karnataka", "start": "2026-07-04", "cases": 68, "deaths": 0, "pct_before": [ 52.4, 33.3, 23.8, 9.5 ], "max_before": 52.4, "hit": false } ], "verdict": "Of 5 chikungunya outbreaks IDSP investigated in 2026, Machhar had read the district as higher than usual in the four weeks before 4 of them (80%); any district-week was that high 27% of the time. Lift 2.93. Better than chance on a small count." } }, "goa_dengue_2026": { "place": "Goa", "disease": "dengue", "source": "The Goan, 2 Oct 2026 (month-wise confirmed cases, DHS); press rows in cases.json", "months": [ { "month": "2026-01", "confirmed": { "Goa": 5 }, "machhar_pct": { "Kushavati": 9.5, "North Goa": 11.9, "South Goa": 9.5 } }, { "month": "2026-02", "confirmed": { "Goa": 1 }, "machhar_pct": { "Kushavati": 38.1, "North Goa": 19.1, "South Goa": 0.0 } }, { "month": "2026-03", "confirmed": { "Goa": 4 }, "machhar_pct": { "Kushavati": 60.0, "North Goa": 41.9, "South Goa": 23.8 } }, { "month": "2026-04", "confirmed": { "Goa": 1 }, "machhar_pct": { "Kushavati": 65.5, "North Goa": 72.6, "South Goa": 64.3 } }, { "month": "2026-05", "confirmed": { "Goa": 5 }, "machhar_pct": { "Kushavati": 44.0, "North Goa": 55.9, "South Goa": 46.4 } }, { "month": "2026-06", "confirmed": { "Goa": 1 }, "machhar_pct": { "Kushavati": 73.3, "North Goa": 69.5, "South Goa": 63.8 } }, { "month": "2026-07", "confirmed": { "Goa": 7 }, "machhar_pct": { "Kushavati": 89.3, "North Goa": 86.9, "South Goa": 86.9 } }, { "month": "2026-08", "confirmed": { "Goa": 46 }, "machhar_pct": { "Kushavati": 79.1, "North Goa": 79.0, "South Goa": 88.6 } }, { "month": "2026-09", "confirmed": { "Goa": 66, "South Goa": 63, "North Goa": 3 }, "machhar_pct": { "Kushavati": 91.7, "North Goa": 89.3, "South Goa": 82.1 } }, { "month": "2026-10", "confirmed": {}, "machhar_pct": { "Kushavati": 1.2, "North Goa": 1.2, "South Goa": 1.2 } }, { "month": "2026-11", "confirmed": {}, "machhar_pct": { "Kushavati": 4.8, "North Goa": 4.8, "South Goa": 0.0 } } ], "rise_months_mean_pct": 85.9, "now": { "week": "2026-11-02", "pct": { "North Goa": 4.8, "South Goa": 0.0, "Kushavati": 4.8 } }, "verdict": "Goa's confirmed dengue rose from single digits a month to 46 in August and 66 in September 2026. Machhar had read the three Goa districts as higher than usual through those months (mean percentile 86; 07/2026: Kushavati 89, North Goa 87, South Goa 87; 08/2026: Kushavati 79, North Goa 79, South Goa 89; 09/2026: Kushavati 92, North Goa 89, South Goa 82). By the week of 2026-11-02 the reading had fallen (Kushavati 5, North Goa 5, South Goa 0) as the rains ended; cases follow weather by weeks, so a low reading now and a high count last month are not in conflict. What the page lacked until 2 October 2026 was the count itself." } }, "inputs": { "cases_generated_at": "2026-11-09T06:19:23+00:00", "cases_run": 1685 }, "summary": [ "Across 35 states and 174 state-years, years with more favourable weather had fewer reported cases (pooled r -0.116, permutation p 0.1625); not distinguishable from chance.", "Across 35 states and 140 state-years, years with more favourable weather had more reported cases (pooled r 0.04, permutation p 0.682); not distinguishable from chance.", "Across 30 states and 147 state-years, years with more favourable weather had more reported cases (pooled r 0.164, permutation p 0.07); not distinguishable from chance.", "Of 72 dengue outbreaks IDSP investigated in 2026, Machhar had read the district as higher than usual in the four weeks before 28 of them (39%); any district-week was that high 28% of the time. Lift 1.39. Better than chance on a small count.", "Of 20 malaria outbreaks IDSP investigated in 2026, Machhar had read the district as higher than usual in the four weeks before 9 of them (45%); any district-week was that high 30% of the time. Lift 1.5. Better than chance on a small count.", "Of 5 chikungunya outbreaks IDSP investigated in 2026, Machhar had read the district as higher than usual in the four weeks before 4 of them (80%); any district-week was that high 27% of the time. Lift 2.93. Better than chance on a small count.", "Goa's confirmed dengue rose from single digits a month to 46 in August and 66 in September 2026. Machhar had read the three Goa districts as higher than usual through those months (mean percentile 86; 07/2026: Kushavati 89, North Goa 87, South Goa 87; 08/2026: Kushavati 79, North Goa 79, South Goa 89; 09/2026: Kushavati 92, North Goa 89, South Goa 82). By the week of 2026-11-02 the reading had fallen (Kushavati 5, North Goa 5, South Goa 0) as the rains ended; cases follow weather by weeks, so a low reading now and a high count last month are not in conflict. What the page lacked until 2 October 2026 was the count itself." ] }