How Dhaan reads a rice field

A published 30 m map (Landsat and Sentinel-2 phenology, 84–88% accurate), counted pixel by pixel inside each district with the pixel's own area. Land is counted once; a field grown twice is two hectare-seasons.

Each district takes the stage of its state's crop calendar today: sown, growing, flowering, harvest, fallow. Radar (Sentinel-1 sees a paddy flood and sees it cut) replaces the calendar district by district next; until then every page says by state calendar.

1,378.25 lakh t of rice (DES 2023-24) × 1.5 straw per tonne of grain, apportioned to districts by hectare-seasons. Under-counts Punjab's high yields until state production replaces it.

IPCC 2019 Tier 1. The range is the water regime we cannot yet see: multi-season fields are irrigated (single drainage 0.71 to flooded 1); single-season fields may be rainfed (0.54) or flooded. Days flooded from radar narrows it; AWD fields take 0.55. Most: Purba Bardhaman 37 kt, Paschim Medinipur 30 kt, Bathinda 27 kt, Birbhum 26 kt, Ludhiana 23 kt. Punjab 238–421 kt.

NASA FIRMS, open files, no key. A detection counts when a 2024 rice pixel lies within ~200 m (a VIIRS pixel is 375 m). Series use Suomi NPP alone so years compare (NOAA-20 from 2020, NOAA-21 from 2023; S-NPP ends 1 Nov 2026, the series then switches with the break marked). Official bulletins use the same passes and miss the same evening fires.

Sentinel-2 (Earth Search, no key), 20 m: NBR = (B8A − B12)/(B8A + B12); a rice pixel is burned when NBR falls by more than 0.10 and the after-scene NBR is under 0.10 (ash is dark in NIR, bright in SWIR). Cloud in either scene is unseen, never unburned. Patiala 71,242 of 2,89,304 ha; Sangrur 1,24,738 of 2,69,946 ha. This is the measure the 13:30 count cannot give.

Our own ECMWF IFS 0.25° run, sampled hourly on a half-degree grid: 10 m (the particles) and 850 hPa, their mean as a crude boundary-layer wind. A parcel leaves each district's fire centre and is followed hour by hour; each hour over a district or a bulletin city is a fire-hour. Transport, not chemistry: never a share of a city's PM2.5.

CPCB's daily 4 pm bulletin, one AQI per city (24 h average, prominent pollutant), parsed from the PDF every day. It is the number newsrooms quote and it is open. Station-level hourly PM2.5 (CAAQMS) needs a key and is next.

Gradient-boosted trees, not a language model. 2,77,840 district-days from 2019–2023; features the atlas already computes: fires in the last 1, 3, 7 days, last year's same week, season so far, rice hectares, three days of rain, temperature and humidity, the calendar's harvest stage, days to Diwali. Predicts a heavy day (≥ 20 detections at the 13:30 pass) within 3 and 7 days. Trained 29 Sept 2026.

Brier score on the season it never saw (2024, 55,568 district-days): lower is better. It must beat climatology (share of heavy days on that day of season, last three seasons) and persistence (heavy in the last three days) or it does not ship. ships. AUC 0.9879.

What it said against what happened, in ten bins of its own confidence; on the dotted line a 70% is a 70%. Expected calibration error 0.0036. 7 days: Brier 0.0135 vs 0.0189 climatology, ships.

Model against climatology; a shorter bar than the number beside it means the model helps. Where it does not (few heavy days), the map shows no forecast: not enough signal.